In 2006, rough estimates of Lebanon's population according to major religious group (there were 18 sects altogether) were: 35% Shia, 35% Christian, 25% Sunni, and 5% Druze. Declining numbers of Christians prompted Muslims to push for more influence than the unwritten "National Pact" of 1943 (put together by the French) called for: that pact stipulated that Lebanon's President must be a Maronite Christian.
On November 11, 2006 in Lebanon, a power play by the pro-Syrian militant Shiite party Hizbullah and its allies plunged the American backed Lebanese government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora (in power since elections in June, 2005) into crisis: all five Shiite ministers and one Christian minister resigned from the cabinet (if two more ministers had left, the government would have fallen). The crisis had been widely expected (fallout from the failed "National Dialogue" in March and the summer war), but the catalyst was a dispute over how to respond to a UN draft plan for conducting the trial of suspects in the assassination of former P.M. Rafik Hariri in 2005, a plan the cabinet went on to accept. The larger issues of Hizbullah's bid for a greater role in the government (with an anti-Syrian majority dominating the Parliament at the time), the conflict between pro and anti-Syrian factions in the cabinet, and charges by the anti-government (pro-Syrian) faction that Siniora's government was awash in graft and corruption remained to be faced another day.
Then, on November 21, 2006, anti-Syrian Maronite Christian and cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel, the 34 year old son of former President Amin Gemayel and grandson of Phalange founder Pierre Gemayel, was assassinated in Beirut. He was the fifth anti-Syrian Lebanese politician to be assassinated in two years. On December 1, in an attempt to overthrow the government, pro-Syrian Hizbullah and its allies (including other pro-Syrian Shiites along with some pro-Syrian Christians) staged a huge rally in Beirut. Among the speakers was a pro-Syrian Christian leader Michel Aoun (he had been fiercely anti-Syrian during the '75-'89 civil war) who was angling to become the next President. On January 23, 2007, anti-government forces led by Hizbullah organized a one day general strike that nearly brought Lebanon to a standstill. At least three died in violent confrontations. One of the worst clashes was between those loyal to pro-Syrian Christian Michel Aoun and those loyal to anti-Syrian Christian Samir Geagea. Both men had long resumes in Lebanon dating back to the civil war that raged in the seventies and eighties: Geagea as a Christian warlord and Aoun as a former commander of the army. On January 25, four students were killed after a fight that began at Beirut's "Arab University" between pro and anti government factions spread into the surrounding streets. By nightfall, Beirut was under a dusk to dawn curfew.
On February 13, 2007, one day before a planned rally to honor assassinated Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a pair of bus bombings in a mostly Christian area near Bikfaya, Lebanon killed three. Bikfaya was a stronghold of the anti-Syrian Gemayel clan.
On May 20, 2007, fighting, the worst since the civil war of the 70s and 80s, broke out between Lebanese army regulars and members of a Palestinian refugee militant group called Fatah al-Islam ("Triumph of Islam") after security forces raided a building in Tripoli and arrested suspects in a bank robbery who belonged to Fatah al-Islam. Ideologically, if not formally, Fatah al-Islam was a jihadist group thought to be linked to al-Qaeda and believed to have connections with Syrian intelligence services invested in destabilizing the Lebanese government (BBC profile of the group). Approximately fifty were killed that day alone. The fighting occurred near the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp outside Tripoli where 40,000 Palestinians lived ( 350,000 Palestinian refugees were living in Lebanon, many having fled there in the 1948 war). Later that same day, a bomb went off in the Ashrafiyya district, a Christian area of East Beirut. The following day, another bomb went off in Beirut's Verdun District, a Muslim area, and the day after that a bomb went off in the Druze town of Aley east of Beirut.
On May 30, 2007, the UN Security Council voted to convene an international tribunal to try those accused in the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri in 2005. Syria and its client Lebanese proxy Hizbullah immediately condemned the decision.
On June 3, fighting broke out at a second Palestinian refugee camp - Ain al-Hilweh near Sidon - where another Palestinian splinter group Jund al-Sham ("Army of Greater Syria"), some of whose members also belonged to the besieged Fatah al-Islam group in Nahr al-Bared (see above), battled Lebanese Army troops.
In mid June, 2007, the UN said it had evidence that arms from Syria were pouring across the border into Lebanon destined for militia groups. If so, this activity was in violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, (along with earlier resolutions 1559 and 1680) which called upon all Lebanese militias to disarm ( Resolution 1701 accompanied the ceasefire that ended the summer '06 war).
On June 13, 2007, anti-Syrian MP Walid Eido, a member of Saad Hariri's "Future Movement," was among at least ten killed in a car bombing in the Beirut neighborhood of Manara.
On August 5, 2007, in by-elections to replace two recently assassinated MPs, the anti-Syrian government suffered a setback when the novice candidate supported by formerly anti-Syrian now pro-Syrian Christian leader Michel Aoun, Kamil Khoury, defeated anti-Syrian Christian leader and former president, Amin Gemayel. The government still retained a slim (five seat) majority in Parliament. The chances of Aoun winning presidential elections later in 2007 looked promising.
On September 20, 2007, anti-Syrian MP Antoine Ghanim, a member of the Maronite Christian Phalange Party, was killed in a car bomb attack in the Sin al-Fil district of Beirut. His murder came on the eve of Presidential elections in Lebanon.
On November 23, 2007, the parliament failed to elect a new president setting the stage for a constitutional crisis between the pro-Syrian (Iranian backed) minority and the anti-Syrian (American backed) majority government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. Fears of a new (regional) war were on the rise. On December 12, Francois al-Hajj, the army general in line to succeed Gen. Michel Suleiman (a compromise candidate who was awaiting election as president), was killed in a car bomb attack in Beirut. Angry at the lack of progress, France, in late December, suspended links with Syria and said it would restore them only when there was proof Syria was not obstructing Lebanon's political process. Finally, in early January Hizbullah, repeating a demand it began making during the 2006 war with Israel, announced it would not back any candidate for president unless it was given one third of the seats on the cabinet (assuring the party veto power).
Through the winter and spring of 2008, the crisis deepened, and reached another rupture point in early May. A labor strike led to demonstrations and threats from the U.S. backed government to shut down the opposition Hizbullah militia's phone network. By May 7, gunfire had erupted in the streets. On May 9 during what one U.N. official described as the worst fighting since the 1975-1989 civil war, Hizbullah took control of large sections of Sunni controlled West Beirut, and the Saudi ambassador began calling for the government to step down. Then, the following day, Hizbullah, having made the point they were capable of taking over the country, backed off and returned most of the areas they had captured to control by the Lebanese army (this was interpreted as a signal that Hizbullah had not given up on the political process). After a few days of calm, fighting erupted again, this time in the Bekaa Valley, the Showeifat, and in Tripoli. The Lebanese army, respected up to this point for its neutrality, threatened to disarm all militias. The crisis eased when the government backed down from its plans to shut down Hizbullah's communications network. Hizbullah, therefore, emerged the political winner (and so did its backers Syria and Iran). Then, a week later in Qatar, delegates from the contending factions forged a deal that paved the way for a new election law, a new government, and the election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as President (the latter happening on May 25). Remaining unresolved were the question of whether or not to disarm Hizbullah and the question of Lebanon's relationship with Syria, both of which meant that Hizbullah, along with its backers Syria and Iran, had emerged from the crisis stronger than ever (on another level, some speculated that Hizbullah provoked the military showdown in order to thwart movement on the peace front between Israel and Syria, news of which was only just beginning to filter out.
On July 11, 2008, political leaders reached agreement on the particulars of a unity government as envisioned in the Qatar talks in May: the Sunnis led by Fouad Siniora were to hold a slight majority of the cabinet seats while opposition parties were to be strongly enough represented as to be able to wield veto power.
See also:
BBC: "The Lebanese Crisis Explained"
BBC: "Constitutional Impasse in Lebanon"
Why does Syria seek to influence what happens in Lebanon? -- See Taif Accord, 1989.
Why are there Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon? -- See war of 1948.