In 2000, Saad al-Din Ibrahim was a Professor of Sociology at the American University of Cairo and a leading commentator on Egyptian political affairs. He was abruptly detained by Egyptian authorities during the summer of 2000 after making a film promoting voter registration which was deemed critical of Egypt's regime. In May, 2001, he was sentenced to a prison term (more). The article excerpted below was also believed to be an aggravating cause. Ibrahim saw a disturbing pattern in recent changes at the top in Morocco, Jordan, and Syria:
A Proposal to Establish Constitutional Monarchies in the Arab Republics
The Umma Must Add the Term "Republicarchy" to the Political Lexicon
By Saad al-Din Ibrahim
The term "Jumlukia" is a new one we are coining for the developing modern Arab political lexicon. In spite of the wealth and variety of the Arabic language, this term has not appeared in history up to now. It is needed now to describe a unique condition in Arab political culture which has enriched political science. This unique condition is the inheritance of governmental authority by sons from fathers within the context of republican governmental machinery. Thus, in spite of the principle of republicanism in some of our Arab nations, some countries are in reality functioning like monarchies. In spite of what has been "republicanism in theory," therefore, we propose this new term "jumlukia," the product of the words "jumhouriya" [republic] and "malakia" [monarchy]…
Naturally what has given rise to this playful term "jumlukia" is what has been witnessed in Syria and throughout the Arab fatherland [watan] this past June with the passing away of Syrian President Hafez al-Asad, who ruled Syria for nearly three decades; this followed by the proclamation of his eldest son Bashar to succeed his father…
The Syrian People’s Assembly – "Parliament" – and the ruling "Baath" Party did not waste any time amending the constitution for the first time in its history: lowering the age of candidacy for the presidency from forty years old to thirty four years old, which is the age of the son Bashar. Secondly, four days after the burial of the father, the Baath Party, in conference, reshaped the party leadership structure and its political office electing Bashar head of the Syrian regional leadership of the Baath; thereby setting in place for Bashar all the qualifications necessary for him to become a candidate for the presidency…
A poll of viewers on an Arab satellite TV network found 79% opposed to the practice of sons succeeding fathers to the presidency of a republic and 21% in favor. Granted, the poll was not completely representative, but it is as close as we can get to a reading of the views of Arabs at this historic moment. The viewers who responded came from different Arab nations; that is to say, they were not from Syria alone. Of course, we won’t know how Syrians themselves feel until the referendum in mid-July, but observers expect the approval rating will run about 95%.
Of the 21% minority in the satellite TV poll who approved of the new form of inherited office, most of them said that Hafez al-Asad had brought stability to Syria never before seen in modern history. Some said that Asad had turned Syria into a regional power never before seen. A third of them said that Asad had become an Arab bulwark in the face of Israeli arrogance.
As for the majority of those polled, those who discount the principle of inheriting office in Arab republics, they did so "on principle": in their view, there is no guarantee that the attributes and merits of the father, while in office, will be passed on to the son. A number of individuals in this group mentioned the bad things that happened in the former Syrian regime as well as the evils of the ruling Baath Party…
I predicted this phenomenon in my article of last year when I said that the rotation of power of Arab chief executives had been designed in order that their sons might inherit their fathers' offices. Indeed, we the people have entered with them into a new bargain or "social contract." We have given our rulers the right to designate their sons to rule us and thereby have transformed republics into monarchies; this in exchange for constitutional monarchies, that is to say with freely elected governments and parliaments, as is the case for example in Holland, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, and even in Malaysia, Morocco, and Jordan up until last year. Jordan and Morocco had been in the process over the course of the last ten years of becoming constitutional monarchies. Then came the heirs: Muhammad VI in Morocco and Abdullah II in Jordan…What happened this past year sent a message to Asad, Saddam, Qaddafi, Mubarak, and Ali Abdullah Salih that they took seriously…
We call upon ourselves to move away from the farce of "republicarchies" and toward genuine constitutional democratic monarchies.
July 2-8, 2000
Translated by Ted Thornton